Why Do NYC Mayors Always Lose?
Over the last fifty years, New York City has had seven different mayors (not counting Eric Adams, who just started this year). Five of those mayors then ran for higher office. President. Governor. Senator. House of Representatives. None have won. Ever.
In fact, in its modern history, no New York City mayor has ever won subsequent office. The job that’s considered the second hardest in all of politics, a job that provides a global platform every single day, a job with close to unchecked power in running the greatest city in the world, is also very much one other type of job as well: dead end.
On Tuesday, Bill de Blasio ended his run for an open congressional seat in Brooklyn, becoming the latest casualty. de Blasio already ran for President in 2020 and came close to running for Governor in 2022. de Blasio is considered one of the worst and most unpopular mayors in the city’s long history, so maybe that’s why he failed?
Nope. Bloomberg was a popular mayor. For much of his tenure, Giuliani was too. And Koch. And Lindsay. They all ran for office after leaving City Hall. Despite having outstanding qualities that allowed them to win the mayoralty, none of those qualities translated into their next race. If anything, voters held the former mayors’ experience against them. Why?
Some of it is the nature of the job itself. Legislators can hide. They almost never have to make critical decisions, and when they do, those are still always policy decisions at 50,000 feet. Mayors run things. Especially ours. And when you have actual operating responsibility for streets and schools, roads and parks, prisons and waste transfer stations, two things invariably happen. First, you can’t get everything right. You have over 300,000 employees. Someone is doing something wrong, intentionally or unintentionally, every minute of the day. Even when their intentions are good, that doesn’t mean our schools are effective or our parks are clean or our roads well run. You own all of that.
Second, even when you do make the right decisions, someone is always on the other side of the issue. Take policing. Aggressive policing under Giuliani and Bloomberg cut crime dramatically. But many New Yorkers felt that their privacy and rights were being sacrificed along with it. Lax policing under de Blasio (combined with some unwelcome help from Albany and covid) has led to a city now gripped by fear and violence. Whichever path you choose, a lot of people will be unhappy.
And while every member of Congress dreams of having their every step chronicled by the media, the mayor faces press scrutiny all day, every day from reporters who are highly incentivized to find fault, create controversy, sow division and uncover wrongdoing. Emerging unscathed from that kind of coverage defies the laws of political gravity. And when mayors then run for subsequent office, their opponents, the media and all of Twitter ecstatically remind us of those failures all day, every day.
Finally, at least for the four recent mayors who ran for President, everything that New Yorkers want in their mayor — brash, aggressive, combative, even arrogant — are traits the rest of the country hates. It’s an awkward fit at best (though it wasn’t a problem for a certain real estate developer from Fifth Avenue). That’s why that New Yorker cartoon of us seeing most of the nation as flyover country resonates so well with us — and so poorly with everyone else.
Could Eric Adams buck the trend? It’s possible. He has a lot going for him: incredible political talent, charisma, mainstream views and hopefully what will be a strong track record at City Hall. But if the past is a predictor of the future, then he may run into the same problems as de Blasio, Bloomberg, Giuliani, Koch and Lindsay.
Is it embarrassing that none of our mayors can play beyond Broadway? A little. We’re supposed to be the best at everything. Even winning office. But if it means having a mayor who’s actually doing worthwhile, difficult things? It’s more than worth it.
